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Marin’s Housing Crisis Impacts Everyone
Abstract:
Marin County faces a housing crisis that is decades in the making and by all measures appears to be getting worse. As reported in the Marin Independent Journal, the median price of a house in Marin was $1.76 million in September 2024, $795,000 for a condominium or townhome. Throughout the county approximately one-third of households pay more than 30% of their income on housing costs, with about half of those paying above 50%. According to an American Community Survey estimate, more than 40,000 commuters regularly travel into Marin County to work, creating traffic congestion and increased air pollution. The lack of affordable housing, along with the visible impact of people relegated to living outside in tents and vehicles has taken a toll on the patience and goodwill of county residents. It is easy to understand how we got here: we stopped building the housing that was needed to meet the demands of a growing population. When we did build new housing, we prioritized single family homes over the more affordable multi-family units. This limited housing supply and raised prices, resulting in a mismatch between those who work or have retired in Marin and those who can afford to live here.
Housing Construction in Marin Has Not Kept Pace with Population Growth
The number of housing units built over time has not matched the rate of population growth in Marin County. Following completion of the Golden Gate Bridge in the late 1930s, Marin’s population grew rapidly, from about 53,000 in 1940 to over 200,000 by 1970 and more than 250,000 in 2024. In the early decades of population growth, new housing construction followed and sometimes drove demand, especially with single-family suburban developments. Beginning in the 1970s, though, new housing developments began to slow, from an average of about 2,250 new units constructed per year in the 1960s and 1970s to half that much in the 1980s and 1990s. Between 2000 and 2021, 5,900 new housing units were built in Marin, an average of 282 per year.
The decrease in new housing construction has led to a corresponding rise in housing prices, making it increasingly difficult for many families and individuals to afford homes in Marin.
Across Marin, Families Struggle to Pay for Housing
Households that spend over 30% of their income on housing are considered “cost burdened”, and those spending more than 50% of their income on housing are “severely cost-burdened.” As families spend more on housing, their ability to meet other basic needs, pay for childcare or college, save for retirement, or put something away for an emergency is seriously limited. Plus, when residents have less disposable income, local businesses suffer due to reduced consumer spending. Moreover, the financial pressure associated with high housing costs can adversely affect mental health, leading to increased anxiety and depression among affected individuals. Addressing these challenges is crucial for the well-being of both the community and the local economy.
Across Marin County, in every single jurisdiction, at least 30% of households are cost burdened as relates to housing. Many are spending more than 50% of household income on housing. This is clearly problematic and not sustainable. The overarching implication is that addressing these housing affordability challenges is essential for fostering a better community.
Marin County Has a High Commuter Dependency Amidst Housing Shortages
The impact of limited housing in Marin is starkly illustrated by its high commuter rates. According to the Marin Commuting Estimates, “46,516 workers commute into Marin from other counties daily”, while 43,886 residents commute out. This significant number reveals a troubling trend: many employees who work in Marin cannot afford to live here due to the high cost and scarcity of housing. As a result, they are forced to seek homes in neighboring counties like Sonoma and Contra Costa, further exacerbating transportation pressures and environmental concerns.
This pattern of commuting underscores the urgent need for affordable housing in Marin. The restricted growth of housing options has left many lower- and middle-income workers struggling to access the local job market, which can ultimately threaten the economic vitality of the area. To address this housing crisis, it is essential to implement new policies that promote the development of affordable housing. By doing so, we can mitigate long commutes and work towards creating a more sustainable and inclusive housing landscape for Marin County.
Housing Tenure and Homelessness Highlight Marin’s Racial Equity Challenges
Housing tenure (whether someone owns or rents their home) in Marin is highly correlated with race. White, non-Hispanic residents are more than twice as likely to own rather than rent. Asian/API residents are about 50% more likely to own. The opposite is true for residents who are American Indian, Alaska Native, Black, African American, Hispanic, Latinx, Other Race, or Multiple Races. These groups are much more likely to rent rather than own their home. This emphasizes the affordability challenges amongst key ethnic groups within Marin County.
Unfortunately, this trend is also present in the population of persons experiencing homelessness, which is disproportionately experienced by American Indian, Alaska Native, Black, and African American residents as compared with these groups’ share of the overall population.
In a county with a history of land use and housing policies that excluded and/or segregated people of color it is troubling that this legacy continues to plague Marin’s housing statistics. It is important to recognize that Marin’s housing affordability crisis is at its core a housing equity crisis. Consequently, many individuals from these communities face higher rates of eviction and housing instability. This situation perpetuates a cycle of poverty, making it increasingly difficult for affected individuals and families to secure stable housing. Addressing the housing crisis through equitable policies and increased access to affordable housing is essential to breaking this cycle and ensuring that all communities can thrive.
Impact of Homelessness on Education and Community Well-Being
One of the most underreported and misunderstood elements of Marin’s housing affordability crisis is the number of public-school students classified as homeless. For the 2019-2020 school year, more than 1,000 students experienced homelessness, with 965 reported in San Rafael.
Homelessness is an affordable housing problem with far-reaching negative effects on a community. It can strain local resources, increase the demand for social services, and impact public health. Homeless students face significant barriers to learning, including difficulties concentrating, attending school regularly, and accessing necessary resources. This instability can hinder their academic performance and future opportunities, perpetuating cycles of poverty. A community with a high number of homeless students may experience decreased educational outcomes, which can have long-term effects on the local economy and social fabric.
Homelessness remains a consequence of the housing crisis, as escalating housing costs exceed family incomes, making it crucial to pursue affordable housing solutions to prevent homelessness.
Closing Remarks:
Marin County's housing crisis presents a complex and urgent challenge, deeply impacting the community across economic, social, and demographic lines. As the population grows, the slow pace of housing development has driven prices to unaffordable levels, leaving many residents’ cost-burdened and exacerbating issues like homelessness, ethnic segregation, and economic inequality. In addition, the lack of affordable housing has led to increased traffic congestion as workers commute from distant areas where housing is more affordable, further straining the region's infrastructure. These conditions reflect systemic issues that demand comprehensive solutions to address not only affordability but also inclusivity and sustainability. Addressing these challenges is essential to fostering a resilient community where people from all backgrounds can access stable housing, participate fully in the local economy, and contribute to a more equitable Marin County.